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Will Fed cut its benchmark interest rate at its July meeting?
Emotions outweigh the data. That is how the financial markets can be described now. Derivative contracts still signal federal funds rate cut at the FOMC meeting in July, though they reduced the probability of its cut by 50 bps from 40% to 21%. The US stock indexes, despite a decline in the manufacturing PMI to the lowest level since October 2016, have reached its new all-time high, and the S&P 500 showed the best half-year performance since 1997. The euphoria about the restart of the US-China trade talks has overwhelmed the…
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