Sunday, January 24, 2021
Forex Broker News
  • Home
  • Forex Broker Reviews
    • All
    • Preferred Brokers
    • Regulated Brokers
    • Unregulated Brokers
    Onorio

    Onorio Review

    Lucrum pro Lucrum.pro

    Lucrum Pro Review

    plutus Global homescreen

    Plutus Global Review

    jp finance broker

    JP Finance Review

    galore pro forex broker

    Galore Pro Review

    profit trade review

    Profit Trade Review

    LegacyFX Review

    LegacyFX Review

    City Index Review

    City Index Review

    Forex.com Review

    Forex.com Review

  • Broker Types
  • Forex Jobs
    • Marketing
    • Customer Support
    • Web Development
    • Compliance
    • Sales
    • Trading Solutions
    • IT
    • R&D
    • Administrative
    • Business Analyst
  • News
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Forex Broker Reviews
    • All
    • Preferred Brokers
    • Regulated Brokers
    • Unregulated Brokers
    Onorio

    Onorio Review

    Lucrum pro Lucrum.pro

    Lucrum Pro Review

    plutus Global homescreen

    Plutus Global Review

    jp finance broker

    JP Finance Review

    galore pro forex broker

    Galore Pro Review

    profit trade review

    Profit Trade Review

    LegacyFX Review

    LegacyFX Review

    City Index Review

    City Index Review

    Forex.com Review

    Forex.com Review

  • Broker Types
  • Forex Jobs
    • Marketing
    • Customer Support
    • Web Development
    • Compliance
    • Sales
    • Trading Solutions
    • IT
    • R&D
    • Administrative
    • Business Analyst
  • News
No Result
View All Result
Forex Broker News
No Result
View All Result
Home News Sources saxo all

APAC Global Macro Morning Brief – Happy Macro Fri 29 Nov 2019: Different Day, Same Risk-Off View…

ADVERTISEMENT
Morning APAC Global Macro & Cross-Asset Snapshot

(Note that these are solely the views & opinions, they do not constitute any trade or investment advice of any kind.)


To see this wk’s Macro Monday click here

APAC Global Macro Morning Brief

 

Table of Contents

    • Happy Macro Fri 29 Nov 2019: Different Day, Same Risk-Off View…
  • RELATED POSTS
  • FX Update: Muted reaction in FX to US-China trade deal
  • Maximum support for equities but watch those G7 rates
  • APAC Global Macro Morning Brief – Happy Macro Thu 5 Dec 2019: Time Decay & 86400…

Happy Macro Fri 29 Nov 2019: Different Day, Same Risk-Off View…

 

On yesterdays Macro Brief, KVP flagged why he thought we could be getting some tactical moves lower over the next few sessions given combination of Trump signing the bill, TG wkd (less liquid) & overall year-to-date gains (Amazing), plus general low vol environment

Time stop on this is likely by Mon or Tue next wk, unless we of course sell-off big time today. The US will be technically back in from the o/n public holiday, yet the big gals & boys will be home with their families & loved ones

Granted year-end to year-start hedges/protection, would allow quite a few of us to sleep better. It will be interesting if 2018 Dec/4Q = 2020 Jan/1Q

Upsides in DollarYuan 7.03 +0.22% & US bond futures 129-09 -0.07% continues to be some of KVP’s fav. for this potential near-term view, as is downside in the likes of DollarYen 109.51 -0.03%

Gold 1456 +0.13%, Silver 16.92 -0.262%  are also worth considering, as is general volatility

DollarYen 109.51, just looks strange at these lvls – i.e. how much upside is there here given the combination of UST are 1.76%, JGBs are off recent highs at -0.08% yields, where we are into year end / year start?

Also don’t forget the year-start lack of liquidity that the market experienced in DollarYen early this Jan 2019


IMHO it would take a lot for USDJPY to break out higher in a sustainable fashion, 109.69 & 109.86 are the 100 & 200 week moving average. 110 is also a psychologically important level in the markets

Yet think it would take  a lot less to see a reversal & DollarYen at sub 108. Bear in mind we were 106.28 just in Aug

We are still waiting for a “forceful” response from China. KVP continues to believe that the US & most people in the market, are discounting the signal that Trump signing the HK bills sends to China

In some ways it is way more visceral that trade tariffs, because here the US is telling the world’s second largest economy (15-16 trn vs. US’s 21-22 trn) what to do within its own borders. Imagine the US response if China passed a similar bill for say California?

Risks to KVP’s tactical near-term risk-off view is that for some reason we get a subdued response (i.e. KVP has it all wrong, China is desperate for a deal) and/or Trump somehow backtracks on the deal or offers concessions in other ways

Yet the thinking behind the tactical positioning here is from a  framework of, what does not cost me too much if I am wrong?…

…& then what would happen if I am right. What if they said… “who are we kidding, we know phase two & three are never gonna happen, why dance at all… all bets are off…”

Let see how the US session goes later on today, also don’t forget China official PMIs this wkd – so far the economy continues to decelerate in slow motion


–

Asia Fri Morning Open

US equity futures are down a touch at -0.10% (not they reversed overnight from their lows), whilst Asia equity futures are in the green

ASX 200 continues to do its thing +0.42% to 6901

Currencies largely unchanged, with the exception of USDKRW +0.15% at 1179

 

Gold & brent are flat at 1456 & 63.87, yet silver a touch bid at +.024% 16.96

–

Have a great wkd everyone, carve out some time for yourself & to do something for someone without them knowing 

KVP is shortly heading to our first parent-teacher event. Time flies, lets optimize it to the fullest

Namaste

-KVP


Today:

  • NZ: Building Consents -1.1%a +7.4%p
  • JP: Tokyo Core CPI Y/Y 0.6%e 0.5%p, Unemployment Rate 2.4%e/p (yes two point four percent), Flash IP
  • EZ: GER U/R, Flash CPI 0.8%e 0.7%p, CORE 1.2%e 1.1%p, EZ U/R
  • CA: Monthly GDP, Industrial Production


    Week Ahead:

  • Rate decisions out of Australia (Tue), Canada (Wed) & India (Thu)
    • As we’ve flagged before Poloz will almost certainly be on the sidelines despite previous BoC meeting, RBA could surprise with a cut despite recent comments from Lowe & we know the RBI are on a dovish skew
  • Data wise it will be a massive wk with ISMs, Final PMIs & Super Friday USA (NFPs, AHE, etc), plus we’ll also have 3Q GDP due out of Aus
  • Also do check out our 2nd last Macro Monday, on…. That’s right… Monday

Other:

  • To catch this wk’s Macro Monday Click here…  & replay of the call here

     

  • Don’t forget to bookmark & check our Daily SaxoStrats calls from the European morning session c. 09:00 CET
Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
– Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
– Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
– Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-mena/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Kay Van-Petersen

Kay Van-Petersen
Global Macro Strategist
Saxo Bank
Topics: Macro AUD JPY CHF EUR GBP New Zealand NZD

RELATED POSTS

FX Update: Muted reaction in FX to US-China trade deal

Maximum support for equities but watch those G7 rates

APAC Global Macro Morning Brief – Happy Macro Thu 5 Dec 2019: Time Decay & 86400…

Share197Tweet123ShareSend

Related Posts

FX Update: Muted reaction in FX to US-China trade deal
saxo all

FX Update: Muted reaction in FX to US-China trade deal

December 20, 2019
Maximum support for equities but watch those G7 rates
saxo all

Maximum support for equities but watch those G7 rates

December 20, 2019
APAC Global Macro Morning Brief – Happy Macro Thu 5 Dec 2019: Time Decay & 86400…
saxo all

APAC Global Macro Morning Brief – Happy Macro Thu 5 Dec 2019: Time Decay & 86400…

August 6, 2020
Four FX charts: USD weak but not yet breaking, AUDJPY and NOK.
saxo all

Four FX charts: USD weak but not yet breaking, AUDJPY and NOK.

December 22, 2019
Equity Monthly: Is Sweden signaling spillover into services?
saxo all

Equity Monthly: Is Sweden signaling spillover into services?

December 22, 2019
FX Update: USD soft ahead of November jobs report
saxo all

FX Update: USD soft ahead of November jobs report

December 22, 2019

Select one of the Best Forex Brokers for your Trading  |  Read the Reviews

Onorio

Onorio Review

Lucrum pro Lucrum.pro

Lucrum Pro Review

plutus Global homescreen

Plutus Global Review

jp finance broker

JP Finance Review

galore pro forex broker

Galore Pro Review

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Between 65-89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. forexbroker.news is an affiliated partner with various Forex brokers and may be compensated for referred Forex traders.

Risk Disclosure: Forexbroker.news assumes no liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information contained within this website including data, quotes, charts and forex signals. Operations in the international foreign exchange market contain high levels of risk. Forex trading may not be suitable for all investors. speculating only the money you can afford to lose. Forexbroker.news remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time and may not be accurate. All stock prices, indexes, futures are indicative and not appropriate for trading. Thus, Forexbroker.news assumes no responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Disclaimer: It is our organization's primary mission to provide reviews, commentary, and analysis that are unbiased and objective. While ForexBroker.News has some data verified by industry participants, it can vary from time to time. Operating as an online business, this site may be compensated through third party advertisers. Our receipt of such compensation shall not be construed as an endorsement or recommendation by ForexBroker.News, nor shall it bias our reviews, analysis, and opinions.

  • Privacy Policy
  • Contact US
  • Terms of use,

Copyright © 2020 forexbroker.news

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Forex Broker Reviews
  • Broker Types
  • Forex Jobs
    • Marketing
    • Customer Support
    • Web Development
    • Compliance
    • Sales
    • Trading Solutions
    • IT
    • R&D
    • Administrative
    • Business Analyst
  • News

© 2020 https://forexbroker.news - Forex Broker news & magazine