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FX Breakout Monitor: GBP strong, USD meandering ahead of FOMC

Sterling traders seem confident that we are headed for a Tory majority government and a smooth path to Brexit as the recent sterling rally has proven one of the very few successful breakout trades of late. Elsewhere, the USD looks inert after teasing lower recently in places ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow.

The link below takes you to the latest FX Breakout Monitor, a concise PDF overview of all current and recent price breakouts for the short and medium term for major FX pairs and spot silver and gold.

Today’s FX Breakout Monitor PDF

Today’s Breakout monitor
Below is a snap of the full list of currency pairs we track for the breakout monitor. Volatility has picked up a bit in fits and starts, but most pairs in our universe continue to show very compressed trading ranges as evidenced by the deep blue shadings of the ATR field in the majority of pairs in our universe. The recent volatility bright spots in spot gold and silver have reverted to normal trading ranges (no shading in the ATR field), which is perhaps not a major surprise with so many other markets showing little volatility and high complacency.

Few currencies are on the move, with the most notable of these over the last two weeks sterling and kiwi, both of which have rallied strongly. Sterling faces a key test late Thursday as the results of the UK election begin to roll in. See our latest thoughts on the UK election and sterling. 

Specifically today, EURNOK jumped suddenly to a new 19-day high intraday on NOK weakness in the wake of today’s Norwegian November CPI release and Regions survey from  the Norges Bank. This bears watching into the close as the last resistance level from here is the all-time highs above 10.25 as we discuss below.

The US dollar, meanwhile, looks awfully inert after a recent spate of weakness failed to follow through into a larger development. We have the FOMC meeting up tomorrow evening, the next chance for a surprise. Among EM pairs, we are noting interesting divergences, with USDRUB recently edging toward downside breakouts while USDTRY closed yesterday at a 19-day high and USDZAR is close to doing the same today.

Today’s Breakout Highlight: EURNOK

EURNOK has given traders a case of whiplash recently, buffeted by oil market volatility that saw a previous attempt higher rejected until today’s fresh go at the 10.18 area high close for the last 19 days. Also note that the pair never took out the key 61.8% Fibo retracement area – a key pivot level around 10.20. And just before we are set to publish this piece, we get the “news” that Chinese sources claim the Trump administration will delay the December 15 tariffs against China to allow for further negotiation of the “phase one” trade deal – no confirmation from the Trump administration on this, but it has capped the upside of today’s move in this global growth-sensitive pair. 

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

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John Hardy
Head of FX Strategy
Saxo Bank
Topics: Forex FX Breakout USD EUR JPY EURUSD GBP GBPUSD AUD NZD SEK NOK CHF USDJPY CAD USDCAD GBPJPY EURSEK EURNOK AUDNZD Silver Gold AUDUSD

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