Wednesday, March 22, 2023
Forex Broker News
  • Home
  • Forex Broker Reviews
    • All
    • Preferred Brokers
    • Regulated Brokers
    • Unregulated Brokers

    Revisión de VastWealth -español

    XTB Review

    Sollari Review

    VastWealth Review

    Stockscale Review

    Fibinex.io Review

    Homefx-Plus Review

    StockHome.io Review

    LegacyFX Review

  • Broker Types
  • Forex & Fintech Jobs
  • News
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Forex Broker Reviews
    • All
    • Preferred Brokers
    • Regulated Brokers
    • Unregulated Brokers

    Revisión de VastWealth -español

    XTB Review

    Sollari Review

    VastWealth Review

    Stockscale Review

    Fibinex.io Review

    Homefx-Plus Review

    StockHome.io Review

    LegacyFX Review

  • Broker Types
  • Forex & Fintech Jobs
  • News
No Result
View All Result
Forex Broker News
No Result
View All Result
Home News Sources saxo all

Macro Monday Week 38: From Spiking Oil Prices to FOMC Decisions…

Start of the week to be dominated by weekend events in the Middle East, with the drone strikes on Saudi oil processing plant. This week’s call focuses on that (very tactical horizon) as well as looks into the more important (structural horizon) implications of the FOMC decision due out on Wed, Sep 18.
Macro Monday Week 38: From Spiking Oil Prices to FOMC Decisions…

Mon 16 Sep 2019

A  replay of the call is available HERE


Start of the week to be dominated by weekend event in the Middle East, with the drone strikes on Saudi oil processing plant.

This week’s call focuses on that – so very tactical horizon – as well as looks into the more important – structural horizon – implications of the FOMC decision due our on Wed.

Do keep in mind for the Asia Pacific we also have monthly China growth data (which have missed earlier today across the board), RBA mins on Tuesday, 4Q NZ GDP of 2.0%e alongside Aus jobs data on Thu.

Wishing everyone a healthy, phenomenal, smooth, profitable & lucky wk up ahead.


Namaste

-KVP

**

Summary of Prior Week:

  • Geo Politics: Kick off Mon Asia morning with huge spikes upwards in oil of c. +20% in Brent Crude following the back of the wkd drone attacks on the worlds biggest oil processing plant. With some est. putting the slashed output by half being equivalent to 5% of world supply (5.7m b/day lost).
    It worth noting the Saudi Arabia have flagged that they have enough stockpiles to meet client demand (for c. 60 days)  & have indicated that c. 1/3 of production will be back on line on Monday.

Trump also tweeted that he has advocated the opening up of the US Strategic Reserve (USR) “if needed”, which has over 700m barrels of oil. There have been only a few drawdowns of the USR during the first 1991 Gulf War, 2005’s Hurricane Katrina & 2011’s halting of Libyan export (Arab Spring).    

  • Bojo’s attempted coup shatters. Now its will the EZ entertain an extension

    Econ data: Inflation beats in China (pork?) at 2.7%a 2.8%e. Whilst US Core also beat 2.4%a 2.3%e. UK GDP & jobs data also beat (amazing). Misses were seen in EZ regional IPs

  • ECB: Likely summed up with bund yields closing at the highs of the wk, despite big intraday swings on ECB day. Looks like our potential Not So Super Mario thesis played out…
  • FI: Bond price correction cont. as yields climb. USTs now 1.90%, Bunds -45bp & JGBs -15bp.
  • FX: Been a whilst since cable smoked the G10 +1.79% vs. +0.50% from AUD, on other hand -1.09% from JPY vs. the USD.
  • CMD: Apart from oil & precious metals, was a bullish wk for CMDs
  • EQ: Sea of green, back above 3K on SPX which is now +20% YTD.
  • Vol: The compression cont. down c. -8.4% for the wk to 13.74.

 

COT Report: [@Ole_S_Hansen]

 

  • Reversal in the previous CoT Reports – which saw USD net-long spike higher – as we pull back c. -6% in USD Net-Longs $12.7bn ($13.1bn)
  • Note the big tick-up in BRL shorts & delta to other EM FX like MXN & RUB
  • Commodity Net-long exposure reverses close to 2months trend of drastic reduction in net-exposure, as we get a +3x spike in Net-Long exposure in the commodity complex by HFs

 

Week Ahead

Key Focus:

  • FOMC | Brazil Central Bank | Energy / Middle East Focus | NZ 4Q GDP | RBA Mins
  • Central Banks (SGT):
  • #WK 38 – BZ 6.00% p (19) FED 2.00%p 2.25%p (19) SNB –0.75%p (19) NO 1.25%p (19) BoE 0.75%p (19) BoJ 0.75%p (19) SA 6.50%p (19) ID 6.50%p (19

Fed Speakers (SGT):

  • Williams, Rosengreen, Kaplan

Other (SGT):

  • Mon JP Hol (16), Further ripples from Energy / Middle East, Weekly US oil Inventories that more significant this wk, Scenarios around Oil Sell-Off this Mon Mrn AM Asia (covered over the call, check out replay link)

Econ Data:

  • US: Empire mfg. Index, Cap Utilization Rate, IP, Housing Data, CA
  • CH: FAI, IP, RS, U/R
  • EZ: GER ZEW, Final CPI 1.0%e/p, CU, GER PPI
  • JP: TB, All Industries Activity, National Core CPI
  • UK: CPI, House Prices, RS, BoE Quarterly Bulleting
  • NZ: Milk Auction, CA, GDP +2.0%e +2.5%p
  • AU: RBA mins, House Prices, Jobs data 15.2k e 41.1k p, 5.2% U/R e/p
  • CA: Mfg. Sales, Inflation, ADP, RS

 

Greater China Focus (GST: slides 10 to 13) – Focus on Oct 1st 70th National Day, CNH, EQ & Yields


Chartography & Price Action

  • Very tactical simple focus this wk, showing the context of the gap up & down in prices this wk across both Brent Crude 66.22 +10%, WTI 59.75 +8.9%, S&P Futures 2991 -0.52%, Nasdaq100 Futures 7816 -0.89%, as well as spot gold 1503 +0.98% & silver 17.85 +2.3%. Worth noting energy is off the highs, as are precious metals & equity futures are off the lows – in the Asia morning at least, so far.  


Don’t forget to bookmark & check our Daily SaxoStrats calls from the European morning session c. 09:00 CET

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
– Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
– Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Kay Van-Petersen
Global Macro Strategist
Saxo Bank
Topics: Macro AUD NZD USD Bonds Turkey Europe
ADVERTISEMENT
Share196Tweet123ShareSend

Related Posts

saxo all

Maximum support for equities but watch those G7 rates

February 11, 2023
saxo all

FX Update: Muted reaction in FX to US-China trade deal

November 4, 2022
saxo all

APAC Global Macro Morning Brief – Happy Macro Thu 5 Dec 2019: Time Decay & 86400…

November 1, 2022
saxo all

Aussie Consumer Sounds the Alarm

October 31, 2022
saxo all

Four FX charts: USD weak but not yet breaking, AUDJPY and NOK.

October 31, 2022
saxo all

Equity Monthly: Is Sweden signaling spillover into services?

October 31, 2022

Select one of the Best Forex Brokers for your Trading  |  Read the Reviews

Revisión de VastWealth -español

XTB Review

Sollari Review

VastWealth Review

Stockscale Review

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Between 65-89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. forexbroker.news is an affiliated partner with various Forex brokers and may be compensated for referred Forex traders.

Risk Disclosure: Forexbroker.news assumes no liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information contained within this website including data, quotes, charts and forex signals. Operations in the international foreign exchange market contain high levels of risk. Forex trading may not be suitable for all investors. speculating only the money you can afford to lose. Forexbroker.news remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time and may not be accurate. All stock prices, indexes, futures are indicative and not appropriate for trading. Thus, Forexbroker.news assumes no responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Disclaimer: It is our organization's primary mission to provide reviews, commentary, and analysis that are unbiased and objective. While ForexBroker.News has some data verified by industry participants, it can vary from time to time. Operating as an online business, this site may be compensated through third party advertisers. Our receipt of such compensation shall not be construed as an endorsement or recommendation by ForexBroker.News, nor shall it bias our reviews, analysis, and opinions.

  • Privacy Policy
  • Contact US
  • Terms of use,

Copyright © 2020 forexbroker.news

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Forex Broker Reviews
  • Broker Types
  • Forex & Fintech Jobs
  • News

© 2020 https://forexbroker.news - Forex Broker news & magazine