According to Mike Shedlock from MishTalk, the New York Fed has the odds of a recession within the next year near 33 percent.
Some of the other models are humorous.
Anyone who “can’t see the recesion” coming to the U.S. isn’t looking at this key indicator, according to Davin Rosenberg, Gluskin Sheff & Associates Inc.’s chief economist and strategist.
New York Fed Treasury Spread Model
We can see the recession model for Jun 2020 is near 33 percent. Trade war effect could cause a bigger risk of global HDP slowdown. The next threat is inverse yield curve of some US government bonds for example : US03MY to US05Y, US03MY to US10Y, US02Y to US05Y. But the most watched pair US02Y to US10Y is still not inversed (negative spread). Will we seen rising percentage in near future or not?
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