(Note that these are solely the views & opinions, they do not constitute any trade or investment advice of any kind.)
To see this wk’s Macro Monday click here
APAC Global Macro Morning Brief
Happy Macro Thu 5 Dec 2019: Time Decay & 86400…
So had a few folks pinging KVP saying great call on the risk-off from last Thu, etc… My response was firstly thanks, one should pick up any compliments than someone puts down in good stead – i.e. there is only going to be a finite amount of these for the majority of us, hover up what you can
Truth is, yes, even though we are c. 15 handle on VIX & now up c. 30% in last 5 trading days… we are not even -2% from the highs on the likes of the S&P
Think we need more of a -5% to -10% move to really warrant a correction & such a potential move is even questionable in regards to whether that fully prices the chance of a trade deal not happening. Whats the right pricing if a deal breaks?
Great question, something along the lines of VIX 15.00 getting over 25. UST 1.7672 getting sub 1.60%. Gold 1475, getting above 1525 – 1550. DollarYen 108.84 (great call by the way, when we flagged on Macro Monday that 109.50 lvls were looking tippy toppy) would get to sub 107 – 105. Nikkei would drop -5%, etc
Meanwhile we had a bounce o/n with SPX +0.63% to 3113, VIX -7.3% to c. 15 handle, USTs moved higher to c. 1.77. Gold & Silver were on the retreat at -0.20% & -1.85% to 1475 & 16.86…
So once again, market is still acting like phase one is as good as done… & you know what, the market may be right… THE MARKET TENDS TO BE RIGHT OVER TIME… & that is likely the best framework to start from…
Yet near-term KVP remains tactically skeptical. The skew is to the downside, the delta of that skew really once again lies in China’s court & of course counting down on the 10 days to the Dec 15 US Tariff deadline on the trade deal…
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Econ Review:
So overnight was Service PMI Wednesday & that’s what we got, interesting divergence…
- China continues to show the bounce in PMIs as we saw Caixin Services at 53.5a 51.2e 51.1p
- So basically we have gotten beats on both official & Caixin figures on both mfg. & serv. side. As wisely pointed out by our talented Peter Ganry, we’d take the data with a bucket or three of salt… as just not yet seeing that pick-up in China’s trade partners that would be associated with a sustainable bounce
- One set of beats does not a bullish trend make, the Trixie part is… going into year end & the year start will have Chinese New Year… so there is going to be a lot of seasonal dispersion in China data for 4Q19 / 1Q20…
- Euro-Zone saw a big beat on final services at 49.3a 48.6, with Spain shooting out the lights 53.2a 51.9e 52.7p. German also beat on services at 51.7a 51.3e
- US was uncharacteristically the laggard o/n as we had ISM Non-mfg. coming in at 53.9a vs. an expected 54.5 & down from the previous 54.7 – again this warrants watching…Note that the final services PMI was in-line at 51.6 (flash had beaten 2wks back)
Overall KVP is seeing more & more headlines on global growth stabilizing, worst behind us, etc…
Again, think this comes down to how you slice up your time horizon… is this a mini-recovery in a long-term decelerating business cycle?
Potentially…
Or a big structural shift in higher sustainable growth globally?
Highly unlikely…
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Bank of Canada unchanged rate decision & more importantly price action on a stronger loonie, played out exactly as we flagged in yesterday’s piece… Downright Outrageous…
USDCAD was c. 1.3300 Wed Asia morning, this Asia Thu morning we are c. 1.3187… that’s a +0.85% unlevered move in under 24hrs… Kudos to those with skin in the game
Would not over complicate any DollarLoonie shorts, trailing stop using recent highs as a starting point… we were c. 1.3270 right before the decision
Next BoC is Jan 22, with RBA Feb 4 & RBNZ Feb 12
Here is the link to the BoC statement
Fed & ECB are next Wed 11 & Thu 12
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There are countless misplaced assumptions & frameworks that people operate with in the world. A lot of these stem from the bias of approaching things from an ethical sense of good or bad, or what feel right vs. wrong
Whilst the spirit in those approaches no doubt tend to be with the best intentions, it also tends to shut down any rational or logical thought. For instance not all humans beings are equal. Yes, they could all be deserving of equal rights & life… yet they are not all equal
Its an uncomfortable aspect, that we tend to look over in society…
There is one venue though where equality, is pretty much symmetrical when it comes to us as a species & that is time. More specifically how we use our time. There are 86400 seconds in the day
The delta between where you are today & where you want to be tomorrow, is simply determined by how poorly (first) & how well (second) you are using those 86400 second
A great analogy that KVP came across was the following. You life if like a bank account, that is credited with $86,400 everyday that needs to be spent, before the account is wiped clean & re-credited. So spend those dollars carefully
Because even though time & its use is about as great an equalizer as you can get, wealth actually creates more time – both in magnitude & quality of that time…
Which if you think about it, is the epitome of leverage… i.e. You don’t just get more time, but the quality (use & lifestyle) of that time is also greatly enhanced? Sign me up…
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Have an excellent day everyone, don’t forget super Friday in the US with NFP, AHE & U/R due tomorrow
Namaste
-KVP
Today:
- NZ: RBNZ gov. Orr Speaking
- AU: Retail Sales, Trade Balance
- EZ: GER Factory Orders, Retail Sales, Revised GDP 1.2%e/p, Employment Change
- US: Challenger Job Cuts, Trade Balance, Factory Orders
- CA: Trade Balance, Ivey PMI 49.3e 48.2p
Other:
- To catch this wk’s Macro Monday Click here… & replay of the call here
- Don’t forget to bookmark & check our Daily SaxoStrats calls from the European morning session c. 09:00 CET
Some Pieces From the Rest of the SaxoStrats Squad
- Peter’s on equities: Is it time to reduce exposure to health care?
- Dembik’s Chart of the Week: Indian Slowdown
- Hardy’s on currencies: FX Deep Dive – Staggering complacency ahead of 2020
- Be on the lookout for our latest Outrageous Predictions for 2020, Jakobsen is on the OP Campaign Trail
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